7th AuthorAID Climate Science Journal Club Research Discussion on Energy Transition Modelling

The AuthorAID is an international community that gives support, resources, mentoring, and empowerment to aspiring or existing researchers particularly in low- and middle-income countries, helping to bridge the gap in research output and encouraging evidence-based decision-making. 

As part of the AuthorAID community, the Climate Science Journal Club is a monthly gathering of like-passion individuals interested in research and particularly climate change related issues where papers are presented and discussed fostering feedback, collaboration, and networking. The Journal Club held its 7th meeting on Friday 26th July, 2024 on the topic “Investigating Energy Transition Dynamics in a Fossil-Dominant Economic Bloc: A Quantitative Approach” . This working paper was co-authored by Stephen Asare Abankwa and Samuel Osei Afriyie.

Introduction

The discussant, Stephen A. Abankwa briefed that energy transition is the structural shift from non-renewable energy to renewable energy. He indicated that BRICS+ are a group of countries that have come together to further their economic position in the global space.The original BRICS countries are Brazil representing letter 'B' and the four other countries: Russia, India, China, and South Africa respectively. The '+' sign attached to the BRICS is an invite for additional countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries who have joined the bloc. They aim to champion sustainable development, increase trade and investment, and have a greater voice in global economic decisions. The presenter noted that countries with a high fossil fuel-dependency have joined this economic bloc. 

From the quantitative analysis of the study, the authors showed that Energy Transition (ET): Renewable energy consumption has depicted a downward trend over the decade from 1990-2019; recording a 44% decline in the transition.  

Background analysis

The current study of the authors differ from existing research as the current study employed the energy transition effects of BRICS+ economic bloc, employed a panel quantile regression estimation technique, and delved into country-level heterogeneity to show a distinct outcome by the countries concern in this study.

The first graph shows the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions data from 1990-2019 for ten BRICS+ countries namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia. From the quantitative analysis, the authors showed that Energy Transition (ET): Renewable energy consumption has depicted a downward trend over the decade from 1990-2019; recording a 44% decline in the transition.   

The second figure also depicts investment made by the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, and South Africa) in renewable (blue bar) and non-renewable energy (orange bar).

Findings and Discussions

The discussant emphasized that, in terms of public energy investment, Brazil has depicted much concern to this course. This gave a clear analysis that an increase in investment into Renewable Energy over the decade resulted in a decrease in CO2 emissions. In relation to energy transition, the presenter noted that the share of renewable energy as compared to non-renewable energy is very low. This shows a downside with how much countries are consuming renewable energy or adding to their energy supply. He briefly noted that there is the need for a study that investigates the factors driving these trends.

... Brazil has depicted much concern to this course. This gave a clear analysis that an increase in investment into Renewable Energy over the decade resulted in a decrease in CO2 emissions.

A participant asked, “Is it possible to further tease out what the regression results mean for each of the countries as a way to show the policy implication of the result?”  To which the presenter responded, “ Yes, I believe I did point out some of these  implications in the recommendation during my presentation”. The same participant suggested that some of the regression results could be presented in a graphical figure. 

The presenter made known that the team is even looking forward to adding other variables which do have a significant relation in energy transition such as inflation, trade openness, geopolitical risk, interest rates, etc. He further added that future research could look at solving the endogeneity issue which relates to variables (renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and CO2 emissions) affecting each other than one causing the other to occur; thus the challenge of solving cause and effect and exploring the lock-in effect. The lock-in effect in this context is thus the committment or investment made by individuals or organizations in non-renewable energy, making it difficult or very costly to adapt or switch to renewable energy, hence impeding the energy transition process.

... importance attached to fossil fuel (coal, gas, oil) usage to the bloc is lasting and therefore investments should be channeled into Research and Development for economic advancement and moreover, rapid decarbonization techniques should be prioritized to mitigate rising CO2 emissions.

Arusey Chebet, another participant also queried, “Can such study be done in Africa and what will be the implications and limitations?” In response, the discussant clarified that such study could be done in Africa but the limitation one could face is the quality of data. He added that there were alot of missing multi-year values for some African countries like Ethiopia which made them (the authors) to exclude Ethiopia from the study.  

Key Takeaways

• Energy transition is a structural shift from non-renewable energy (such as coal, nuclear energy, oil/fuel, etc) to renewable energy ( such as solar, wind, biomas, hydro energy, etc)
• The share of renewable energy as compared to non-renewable energy is very low. Thus large proportion of our global communities are consuming less of renewable energy as compared to non-renewable energy. 
• High investment into renewable energy have resulted in mitigating CO2 emissions.

Policy Implications and Call-to-action

Per the findings, it is recommended that:

• the importance attached to fossil fuel (coal, gas, oil) usage to the bloc is lasting; therefore investments should be channeled into Research and Development for economic advancement.
• rapid decarbonization techniques should be prioritized to mitigate rising CO2 emissions.
• energy transition should be incentivize to reduce the high dependency on fossil fuel.
• promoting sustainable land use such as reforestation by executing policies aim at champoining this course.
•  there should be easy accessibility and accuracy of the data relating to climate change especially in Africa for sound research to be done for proper decision making.

We call on all stakeholders inlcuding governments,various corporations, and individuals who have keen concern and interest about climate change issues to join our WhatsApp group and attend our future meetings to present or discuss climate change related issues to foster collaboration and to take actions to control and decrease the effect of climate change for sustainable developmemnt and growth.

About the authors

Meeting Recordings

7th Meeting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOJTFmWKZ6g

Authors (7th): Stephen Asare Abankwah; Samuel Osei Afriyie

Moderator and Editorial team (7th): Zerubbabel Addy Selby

Contributing participants (7th): Arusey Chebet, Stephen Bannah, Samuel Osei Afriyie, and Zerubbabel Addy Selby

IT Support: Wise Delight Duho

To join the club kindly use the link below to join our WhatsApp group: https://chat.whatsapp.com/E1hhLTlM2XV7TGFUxjyEIo